In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans became a different city: half the size, with a smaller Black population, fewer low-income residents, and more entrepreneurs. How Hurricane Ida, which roared into the Big Easy Sunday on Katrina’s 16th anniversary, will further rearrange life there depends on multiple factors—chief among them, how many billions are sent to clean up and how long it takes to restore power to more than a million customers who lost it.

Social scientists have been saying for decades that natural disasters only accelerate pre-existing trends and increase inequities. A city with a declining population before a disaster will continue to decline, just as a booming city will continue to boom, as San Francisco continued to boom