Coronavirus in the U.S.: Where cases are growing and declining
America’s long bout with the coronavirus is delivering a new epicenter for every season. The Midwest is carrying much of the load as the U.S. region with the most cases, but COVID-19 rates are rapidly rising across 29 states and territories. The nation’s third surge has arrived.
This bout will likely be harder to manage, as the pestilence flourishes in rural areas where access to emergency care has been declining for years. Rural areas have higher rates of the underlying conditions and behaviors—smoking, high blood pressure, and obesity—that tend to lead to worse outcomes with COVID-19. In Tennessee, for example, rural areas are experiencing double the death rate as cities.
The autumn surge is even creeping into pockets of the Northeast, zones long thought recovered, in another sign that the country remains far from achieving herd immunity without an effective vaccine. The nation surpassed eight million cases by October 16, and at the current pace, could easily reach 300,000 deaths before the new year.
The map below shows the regions where cases and deaths are either decreasing or increasing the most, based on the last seven days compared to the previous week.
See the full graphic hereat National Geographic.
Data as of Oct. 21, 2020, 8:21 A.M. E.T.
NGM Staff, Paul Buffa.
Source: The New York Times, U.S. Census Bureau. Counts for Alameda County include cases and deaths from Berkeley and the Grand Princess cruise ship and counts for Douglas County include cases brought to the state from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Though the lockdowns issued by many states and territories began easing in mid-April, it took weeks for new surges to appear. Death rates, which lag at least a month behind case counts, are also still rising in approximately 30 states and territories. On July 21, the U.S. recorded more than a thousand deaths for the first time since early June.
Hard hit areas such as New York City and Boston witnessed the normal surge and dissipation that accompanies the first wave of a pandemic. But case rates elsewhere neither grew nor abated, giving off the impression of control. Unfortunately when states and territories began to reopen in May, the virus’s stealthy spread flourished once more. (See the spread of the coronavirus across the globe.)
Where coronavirus cases and deaths are changing the most
Assuming that tests are being deployed thoroughly, a regional growth in coronavirus cases signals a breakdown in one of those strategies, while a decrease suggests the virus is being controlled. Here are the top 10 states and territories that have experienced the greatest change—an increase or a decrease—in coronavirus cases and deaths per capita over the last seven days from the previous seven days.
Stay-at-home order
7-day average
See the full graphic hereat National Geographic.
Data as of Oct. 21, 2020, 8:21 A.M. E.T.
NGM Staff, Paul Buffa.
Source: The New York Times, U.S. Census Bureau. Counts for Alameda County include cases and deaths from Berkeley and the Grand Princess cruise ship and counts for Douglas County include cases brought to the state from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
State-by-state: Trends in coronavirus cases
More detailed state information about where coronavirus cases or deaths are increasing, decreasing, or staying steady where you live.
See the full graphic hereat National Geographic.
Data as of Oct. 21, 2020, 8:21 A.M. E.T.
NGM Staff, Paul Buffa.
Source: The New York Times, U.S. Census Bureau. Counts for Alameda County include cases and deaths from Berkeley and the Grand Princess cruise ship and counts for Douglas County include cases brought to the state from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Data as of Oct. 21, 2020, 8:21 A.M. E.T.
NGM Staff, Paul Buffa.
Source: The New York Times, U.S. Census Bureau. Counts for Alameda County include cases and deaths from Berkeley and the Grand Princess cruise ship and counts for Douglas County include cases brought to the state from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.