How scientists know COVID-19 is way deadlier than the flu
After months of study, scientists have better clarity on the coronavirus's lethal potential—which makes recent case surges all the more alarming.
For James Scott, the worries began in late May. It was about a month after Texas began relaxing restrictions on businesses and public gatherings, and Scott was looking at a model he had developed to predict COVID-19 deaths using cellphone mobility data. As he watched the dramatic rise in people visiting restaurants, bars, gyms, and concert venues, he felt it was only a matter of time before the state’s cases surged—and the deaths wouldn’t be far behind.
“It’s like Bob Dylan said: You don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows,” says Scott, who works at the University of Texas at Austin, where his model is assessing whether changes in mobility patterns can predict
