OPEN FOR BUSINESS
Monthly Sea Ice Extent, 2018
Less sea ice means more ship traffic
In September 2018, when the area covered by Arctic sea ice shrank to its annual minimum and once again was far below the average of previous decades, hundreds of ships navigated the region. By mid-century if not sooner, Arctic summers are expected to be hot enough to melt most of the sea ice that forms in winter.
Last year the number of vessels crossing waters governed by the international Polar Code—a set of strict safety and environmental rules—was 879, nearly 60 percent higher than in 2012.
September 2018 ship traffic (Northern Sea Route)
Venta
Maersk
route
Bremerhaven
Asia
Busan
Suez Canal
(1,501 ships
in Sept. 2018)
Suez
Canal
route
Africa
Testing alternate routes
Last September the Danish Venta Maersk became the first container ship to complete the Northern Sea Route, traveling from East Asia to northern Europe. The journey was 10 days shorter than the southern route through the Suez Canal, but it required the help of a Russian icebreaker. Arctic shipping routes aren’t expected to be cost-effective until the region is more ice free.
Arctic ice, average
September extent
in millions of square miles
1979
2.72
2018
1.82
Sea ice extent fluctuates naturally, but the trend is unmistakable: The Arctic Ocean will be ice free in summer by mid-century.
Ice-free threshold
2036
proj.
0.28
2050
proj.
0.23
Arctic ice, average
September extent
in millions of square miles
1979
2.72
2018
1.82
Sea ice extent fluctuates naturally, but the trend is unmistakable: The Arctic Ocean will be ice free in summer by mid-century.
Ice-free threshold
2036
proj.
0.28
2050
proj.
0.23
More ships, more emissions
Most Arctic traffic occurs in summer, but new ice-breaking oil and gas tankers are able to operate year-round. These tankers made up just six percent of all ships entering Polar Code waters in 2018, but they burned so much fuel that they were responsible for 33 percent of carbon emissions.
CO2 emissions from ships in Polar Code area
(in thousands of metric tons per month)
Oil and gas tankers*
300
All other ships
200
100
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total CO2 emissions from ships in Polar Code area
(in thousands of metric tons per month)
300
Oil and gas tankers*
All other ships
200
100
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
As Arctic waters become reliably open,
more ships are venturing out on new routes
Russia’s Yamal Peninsula is thought to have the world’s largest natural gas reserves. Ten ice-breaking tankers are exporting Russian gas to Europe and Asia, with five more under construction.
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
oil and gas tanker traffic
Yamal Pen.
North Pole
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
oil and gastanker traffic
RUSSIA
Yamal Pen.
Mys Kamennyy
Magadan
Sabetta
Tiksi
Varandey
Arkhangelsk
FINLAND
Hammerfest
SVALBARD
(NORWAY)
SWEDEN
Longyearbyen
North Pole
Bering Strait
NORWAY
ARCTIC OCEAN
Nome
Red Dog
mine port
ALASKA
(U.S.)
Valdez
ICELAND
GREENLAND
Reykjavík
Nuuk
CANADA
A French icebreaker cruise ship is aiming for the North Pole by 2021, and dozens of ships intended for polar cruises are scheduled to launch by 2023.
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
cruise ship traffic
North Pole
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
cruise ship traffic
RUSSIA
St. Petersburg
Helsinki
SVALBARD
SWEDEN
(NORWAY)
North Pole
Bering Strait
Mongstad
ARCTIC OCEAN
ALASKA
(U.S.)
Anchorage
GREENLAND
Baffin
Skagway
Bay
Ilulissat
Nuuk
CANADA
Iqaluit
Bulk carriers transport materials from northern mines, such as zinc from Alaska’s Red Dog mine and iron ore from Canada’s Mary River Mine. Currently only accessible in summer, the ports serving these mines could be more active for longer periods as sea ice declines.
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
bulk carrier traffic
North Pole
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
bulk carrier traffic
RUSSIA
Magadan
Sabetta
Varandey
Arkhangelsk
St. Petersburg
Barents Sea
Murmansk
FINLAND
Hammerfest
SVALBARD
SWEDEN
(NORWAY)
Longyearbyen
North Pole
Oslo
Bering Strait
NORWAY
ARCTIC OCEAN
ALASKA
(U.S.)
Anchorage
ICELAND
GREENLAND
Reykjavík
Baffin Bay
Nuuk
CANADA
Churchill
A 2018 international agreement bans commercial fishing vessels in the central Arctic Ocean while scientists assess the region.
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
fishing vessel traffic
North Pole
Sea ice extent on
September 10, 2018
September 2018
fishing vessel traffic
RUSSIA
Magadan
Murmansk
FINLAND
Hammerfest
SWEDEN
North Pole
NORWAY
Bering Strait
Mongstad
ARCTIC OCEAN
Nome
ALASKA
(U.S.)
Seward
GREENLAND
Baffin
Bay
Ilulissat
Nuuk
CANADA
RILEY D. CHAMPINE AND RYAN MORRIS, NGM STAFF; SCOTT ELDER. SOURCES: PAME ARCTIC SHIP TRAFFIC DATA (ASTD); NSIDC; IHS MARKIT; SUEZ CANAL AUTHORITY