THE SHIFTING PATTERNS
OF MOVEMENT
MIGRATION WAVES
BY ALBERTO LUCAS LÓPEZ, RYAN WILLIAMS, AND KAYA BERNE
258
MILLION PEOPLE IN 2017 LIVED OUTSIDE THEIR COUNTRY OF ORIGIN.
3%
OF PEOPLE WORLDWIDE
ARE MIGRANTS; THE FIGURE
HAS HELD FOR 50 YEARS.
The ebb and flow of people across
borders has long shaped our world. Data from the past 50 years of international migration help us understand why people make the choice to leave and where they go. Less than 10 percent of these migrants are forced to flee; most are seeking a better life and move only when they can afford to. Global migrants totaled fewer than 100 million in the 1960s, and although the number has increased substantially since then, it remains a fraction of the
world’s 7.6 billion people today.
WHEN IMMIGRATION
IS HIGHER
White indicates more foreign-born residents in a country than people leaving.
Year
Year
Number
of people
1967
2017
Number
of people
COUNTRY
WHEN EMIGRATION
IS HIGHER
Black indicates more people leaving a country than foreign- born residents staying.
Experts at the International Migration Institute of Oxford University have identified different drivers of migration: strong labor markets, migration policies in both source and destination countries, war and conflict,
and economic growth.
STRONG LABOR MARKETS
DRAW MIGRANTS
1987
1967
1977
1997
2007
2017
8.6
million people
UNITED STATES. Some 1.6 million new jobs came with a strong postrecession economy
in the 1990s. In 2002 a slowdown slashed both jobs and immigration.
2.5 M
RUSSIA. An exodus was reversed in the
1970s with the discovery of resources such as oil and gas. The 1991 Soviet collapse brought new arrivals from former republics.
2.7 M
GERMANY. Millions of Eastern Europeans arrived when the Iron Curtain was lifted.
The next surge came in the late 2000s as the robust economy drew migrants and refugees.
3.3 M
U.A.E. Oil wealth, political stability, and a construction boom in the 2000s drew foreign workers. But soon after that, when oil prices fell, many of them left.
1.6 M
SAUDI ARABIA. The 1970s oil boom brought foreign workers to the kingdom. The 1990s saw dwindling oil revenues and a crackdown on undocumented migrants.
2.8 M
SPAIN. Economic growth, rising demand for labor, and integration into what became the EU led to a surge in migrants from develop- ing countries in the 1990s.
.70 M
THAILAND. Migrant workers and refugees are attracted to Thailand’s wages and unfilled jobs. There was a brief outflow in 1992 of refugees who went home to Cambodia.
POLICIES SHIFT
MIGRATION FLOW
1987
1997
2007
1967
1977
2017
2.0 M
UNITED KINGDOM. A change in policies in the 1990s eased restrictions on immigration and asylum. By 2002, a skilled immigrant could get a visa without a job offer.
-2.0 M
ETHIOPIA. The government outlawed emigration in 1981 after famine and revolution forced people out of the country. Many returned once the regime fell, in 1991.
-2.4 M
CHINA. An end to “whites only” policies overseas that had long blocked migration, and emigration reforms at home in the 1980s opened the world to Chinese workers.
INSTABILITY FORCES
PEOPLE OUT
1987
1997
2007
1967
1977
2017
-1.3 M
RWANDA. Nearly two million Rwandans fled during the genocide that took some 800,000 lives in 1994. The conflict fueled war in the Dem. Rep. of the Congo.
-1.3 M
NIGERIA. A violent uprising in the 1980s curbed migrant arrivals and prompted departures. Today terrorist groups such as Boko Haram are spurring outflow.
-.63 M
IRAQ. Instability following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion displaced millions of Iraqis. More recently, Iraq has taken in some 250,000 refugees from war-torn Syria.
-1.1
SUDAN. Refugees from neighboring countries have contributed to Sudan’s inflows, but cycles of civil war in the mid-1990s created greater net outflows.
-3.3 M
AFGHANISTAN. The Soviet Union’s 1979 invasion sent millions into Pakistan and elsewhere in the region. Many later returned, only to face further violence.
-4.2 M
SYRIA. Unrest and civil war have pushed millions into countries such as Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon. Syria’s outflow in 2012 is mirrored in Turkey’s inflow.
POVERTY IMMOBILIZES, MONEY MAKES MOVING POSSIBLE
1987
1967
1977
1997
2007
2017
-0.9 M
VIETNAM. Economic growth since the end of the war, in 1975, has spurred in- and out- migration. Nearly half the four million Vietnamese living abroad are in the U.S.
-2.9 M
MEXICO. Higher incomes have encouraged many to seek U.S. jobs. Factors such as a weak U.S. market and stronger border enforce- ment after the 9/11 attacks slowed migration.
-3.6 M
BANGLADESH. Millions fled conflict in the 1970s, and in the 1980s millions more began to leave for work in the Gulf states. Remittances from overseas fuel the economy.
MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE
BETWEEN COUNTRIES is a significant symbol in an increasingly interconnected global culture and economy. World Bank data showing this “migration balance” for 193 countries are visualized below. Rankings proceed from from the country with the highest immigration (top)
to the country with the
highest emigration (bottom).*
1967
1977
1987
1997
2007
2017
UNITED STATES
RUSSIA
GERMANY
CANADA
U.A.E.
SAUDI ARABIA
AUSTRALIA
SPAIN
U.K.
FRANCE
SOUTH AFRICA
ITALY
MALAYSIA
JAPAN
THAILAND
SINGAPORE
JORDAN
QATAR
TURKEY
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
OMAN
SWITZERLAND
ISRAEL
KUWAIT
SWEDEN
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
GREECE
AUSTRIA
IRAN
LEBANON
SOUTH SUDAN
BAHRAIN
NORWAY
DENMARK
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
COSTA RICA
CZECHIA
ARGENTINA
BELARUS
FINLAND
CYPRUS
GABON
IRELAND
LUXEMBOURG
DJIBOUTI
SLOVENIA
UKRAINE
ANGOLA
DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO
CONGO
BOTSWANA
HUNGARY
CHAD
THE BAHAMAS
MALDIVES
PANAMA
BRAZIL
BRUNEI
CHILE
MALTA
ICELAND
BHUTAN
MAURITANIA
ETHIOPIA
BELIZE
VANUATU
SEYCHELLES
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
ESTONIA
SIERRA LEONE
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
THE GAMBIA
KIRIBATI
BARBADOS
TOGO
SOLOMON ISLANDS
ST. LUCIA
NAMIBIA
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
COMOROS
MICRONESIA
GRENADA
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
TONGA
NORTH KOREA
KENYA
BENIN
MADAGASCAR
ZAMBIA
LIBERIA
ESWATINI
MONTENEGRO
SAMOA
VENEZUELA
SLOVAKIA
CABO VERDE
MAURITIUS
PORTUGAL
SURINAME
MONGOLIA
LATVIA
TUNISIA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
CAMEROON
TURKMENISTAN
NIGER
GUINEA-BISSAU
TANZANIA
CROATIA
FIJI
LIBYA
MOLDOVA
ECUADOR
LESOTHO
NORTH MACEDONIA
MALAWI
LITHUANIA
TIMOR-LESTE
RWANDA
CAMBODIA
HONDURAS
URUGUAY
AZERBAIJAN
UGANDA
PARAGUAY
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
SOMALIA
GUYANA
YEMEN
ERITREA
BOLIVIA
GHANA
SERBIA
SENEGAL
KYRGYZSTAN
GUINEA
LAOS
UZBEKISTAN
ARMENIA
TAJIKISTAN
BULGARIA
MOZAMBIQUE
JAMAICA
ALBANIA
NICARAGUA
NIGERIA
IRAQ
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAITI
BURUNDI
ZIMBABWE
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
POLAND
CUBA
BURKINA FASO
ALGERIA
SUDAN
GEORGIA
MALI
GUATEMALA
COLOMBIA
EL SALVADOR
PERU
NEPAL
ROMANIA
EGYPT
SRI LANKA
AFGHANISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
VIETNAM
PAKISTAN
INDONESIA
MYANMAR
MOROCCO
SYRIA
PHILIPPINES
INDIA
CHINA
MEXICO
BANGLADESH
1967
1977
1987
1997
2007
2017
*NET MIGRATION DATA BASED ON CURRENT COUNTRY BORDERS. DATA QUALITY VARIES FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY.
SOURCES: WORLD BANK; IOM; UNHCR; ILO; MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE; PEW RESEARCH CENTER; SONJA FRANSEN AND HEIN DE HAAS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INSTITUTE
THE SHIFTING PATTERNS OF MOVEMENT
MIGRATION WAVES
BY ALBERTO LUCAS LÓPEZ, RYAN WILLIAMS, AND KAYA BERNE
258
3%
MILLION PEOPLE IN
OF PEOPLE WORLDWIDE
2017 LIVED OUTSIDE
ARE MIGRANTS; THE
THEIR COUNTRY
FIGURE HAS HELD
OF ORIGIN.
FOR 50 YEARS.
The ebb and flow of people across borders has long shaped our world. Data from the past 50 years of international migration help us understand why people make the choice to leave and where they go. Less than 10 percent of these migrants are forced to flee; most are seeking a better life and move only when they can afford to. Global migrants totaled fewer than 100 million in the 1960s, and although the number has increased substantially since then, it remains a fraction of the
world’s 7.6 billion people today.
WHEN
IMMIGRATION
IS HIGHER
White indicates
more foreign-born residents in a country than people leaving.
Year
Year
Number of people
1967
2017
Number of people
COUNTRY
WHEN
EMIGRATION
IS HIGHER
Black indicates
more people leaving a country than foreign-
born residents staying.
Experts at the International Migration Institute of Oxford University have identified different drivers of migration: strong labor markets, migration policies in both source and destination countries, war and conflict, and economic growth.
STRONG LABOR MARKETS DRAW MIGRANTS
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
4
3
2
8.6
1
million people
0
UNITED STATES. Some 1.6 million new jobs came with a strong postrecession economy in the 1990s. In 2002 a slowdown slashed both jobs and immigration.
2.5 M
RUSSIA. An exodus was reversed in the 1970s with the discovery of resources such as oil and gas. The 1991 Soviet collapse brought new arrivals from former republics.
2.7 M
GERMANY. Millions of Eastern Europeans arrived when the Iron Curtain was lifted. The next surge came in the late 2000s as the robust economy drew migrants and refugees.
3.3 M
U.A.E. Oil wealth, political stability, and a construction boom in the 2000s drew foreign workers. But soon after that, when oil prices fell, many of them left.
1.6 M
SAUDI ARABIA. The 1970s oil boom brought foreign workers to the kingdom. The 1990s saw dwindling oil revenues and a crackdown on undocumented migrants.
2.8 M
SPAIN. Economic growth, rising demand for labor, and integration into what became the EU led to a surge in migrants from developing countries in the 1990s.
.70 M
THAILAND. Migrant workers and refugees are attracted to Thailand’s wages and unfilled jobs. There was a brief outflow in 1992 of refugees who went home to Cambodia.
POLICIES SHIFT MIGRATION FLOW
1972
1982
1987
1992
1997
2007
1967
1977
2002
2012
2017
2.0 M
UNITED KINGDOM. A change in policies in the 1990s eased restrictions on immigration and asylum. By 2002, a skilled immigrant could get a visa without a job offer.
-2.0 M
ETHIOPIA. The government outlawed emigration in 1981 after famine and revolution forced people out of the country. Many returned once the regime fell, in 1991.
-2.4 M
CHINA. An end to “whites only” policies overseas that had long blocked migration, and emigration reforms at home in the 1980s opened the world to Chinese workers.
INSTABILITY FORCES PEOPLE OUT
1972
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
1967
1977
2012
2017
-1.3 M
RWANDA. Nearly two million Rwandans fled during the genocide that took some 800,000 lives in 1994. The conflict fueled war in the Dem. Rep. of the Congo.
.85 M
NIGERIA. A violent uprising in the 1980s curbed migrant arrivals and prompted departures. Today terrorist groups such as Boko Haram are spurring outflow.
-.63 M
IRAQ. Instability following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion displaced millions of Iraqis. More recently, Iraq has taken in some 250,000 refugees from war-torn Syria.
-1.1 M
SUDAN. Refugees from neighboring countries have contributed to Sudan’s inflows, but cycles of civil war in the mid-1990s created greater net outflows.
-3.3 M
AFGHANISTAN. The Soviet Union’s 1979 invasion sent millions into Pakistan and elsewhere in the region. Many later returned, only to face further violence.
-4.2 M
SYRIA. Unrest and civil war have pushed millions into countries such as Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon. Syria’s outflow in 2012 is mirrored in Turkey’s inflow.
POVERTY IMMOBILIZES, MONEY MAKES MOVING POSSIBLE
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
-0.9 M
VIETNAM. Economic growth since the end of the war, in 1975, has spurred
in- and out-migration. Nearly half the four million Vietnamese living abroad are in the U.S.
-2.9 M
MEXICO. Higher incomes have encouraged many to seek U.S. jobs. Factors such as a weak U.S. market and stronger border enforcement after the 9/11 attacks slowed migration.
-3.6 M
BANGLADESH. Millions fled conflict in the 1970s, and in the 1980s millions more began to leave for work in the Gulf states. Remittances from overseas fuel the economy.
MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE BETWEEN COUNTRIES is a significant symbol in an increasingly interconnected global culture and economy. World Bank data showing this “migration balance” for 193 countries are visualized below. Rankings proceed from the country with the highest immigration (top) to the country with
the highest emigration (bottom).*
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
UNITED STATES
RUSSIA
GERMANY
CANADA
U.A.E.
SAUDI ARABIA
AUSTRALIA
SPAIN
U.K.
FRANCE
SOUTH AFRICA
ITALY
MALAYSIA
JAPAN
THAILAND
SINGAPORE
JORDAN
QATAR
TURKEY
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
OMAN
SWITZERLAND
ISRAEL
KUWAIT
SWEDEN
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
GREECE
AUSTRIA
IRAN
LEBANON
SOUTH SUDAN
BAHRAIN
NORWAY
DENMARK
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
COSTA RICA
CZECHIA
ARGENTINA
BELARUS
FINLAND
CYPRUS
GABON
IRELAND
LUXEMBOURG
DJIBOUTI
SLOVENIA
UKRAINE
ANGOLA
DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO
CONGO
BOTSWANA
HUNGARY
CHAD
THE BAHAMAS
MALDIVES
PANAMA
BRAZIL
BRUNEI
CHILE
MALTA
ICELAND
BHUTAN
MAURITANIA
ETHIOPIA
BELIZE
VANUATU
SEYCHELLES
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
ESTONIA
SIERRA LEONE
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
THE GAMBIA
KIRIBATI
BARBADOS
TOGO
SOLOMON ISLANDS
ST. LUCIA
NAMIBIA
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
COMOROS
MICRONESIA
GRENADA
ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINES
TONGA
NORTH KOREA
KENYA
BENIN
MADAGASCAR
ZAMBIA
LIBERIA
ESWATINI
MONTENEGRO
SAMOA
VENEZUELA
SLOVAKIA
CABO VERDE
MAURITIUS
PORTUGAL
SURINAME
MONGOLIA
LATVIA
TUNISIA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
CAMEROON
TURKMENISTAN
NIGER
GUINEA-BISSAU
TANZANIA
CROATIA
FIJI
LIBYA
MOLDOVA
ECUADOR
LESOTHO
NORTH MACEDONIA
MALAWI
LITHUANIA
TIMOR-LESTE
RWANDA
CAMBODIA
HONDURAS
URUGUAY
AZERBAIJAN
UGANDA
PARAGUAY
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
SOMALIA
GUYANA
YEMEN
ERITREA
BOLIVIA
GHANA
SERBIA
SENEGAL
KYRGYZSTAN
GUINEA
LAOS
UZBEKISTAN
ARMENIA
TAJIKISTAN
BULGARIA
MOZAMBIQUE
JAMAICA
ALBANIA
NICARAGUA
NIGERIA
IRAQ
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAITI
BURUNDI
ZIMBABWE
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
POLAND
CUBA
BURKINA FASO
ALGERIA
SUDAN
GEORGIA
MALI
GUATEMALA
COLOMBIA
EL SALVADOR
PERU
NEPAL
ROMANIA
EGYPT
SRI LANKA
AFGHANISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
VIETNAM
PAKISTAN
INDONESIA
MYANMAR
MOROCCO
SYRIA
PHILIPPINES
INDIA
CHINA
MEXICO
BANGLADESH
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
*NET MIGRATION DATA BASED ON CURRENT COUNTRY BORDERS. DATA QUALITY VARIES FROM COUNTRY
TO COUNTRY. SOURCES: WORLD BANK; IOM; UNHCR; ILO; MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE; PEW RESEARCH CENTER; SONJA FRANSEN AND HEIN DE HAAS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INSTITUTE