How will we distribute a COVID-19 vaccine? Here’s one potential path.

Experts suggest it may take the

development of multiple vaccines to

begin the process of protecting the

world’s population from COVID-19.

Most of the current vaccine front-

runners require two doses and could

possibly be administered annually. No

vaccine is 100 percent effective, and

once a vaccine is approved there are

still many hurdles to overcome before

a shot can be made widely available.

Governments and scientists have set

different, overlapping time lines in

order to achieve a vaccine. Here is

one ambitious scenario.

BY DIANA MARQUES &

ALEXANDER STEGMAIER

PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 29, 2020

Phase I trial

Phase II trial

Development

Previous research into

other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS is helping scientists

in their race now.

Phase III trial

Clinical trials

A multistep testing process must demonstrate a vaccine is safe and effective before it can get governmental and international approvals.

Sep

WE ARE HERE

Potential emergency authorization

Large-scale production

Vaccines can have complex

biological and engineered

ingredients; mass produc

tion could be the largest

bottleneck in the process.

Emergency use

Limited quantities of a vaccine could become available for priority or high-risk groups, such as first responders and

the elderly.

Potential approval

Shipping worldwide

An extensive network of refrigerated

systems will be required to deliver

vaccines from their manufacturing sites to countries around the globe.

Distribution

Once the product is on the ground,

local authorities will be responsible for

storing it and shipping it to communi-

ties in need.

Vaccination campaign

A country’s size, resources, and people’s

willingness to vaccinate will drive strate-

gy; syringes, protective equipment, and

health workers will be in high demand.

Estimated global vaccine annual supply and demand

15.8 billion doses needed

14.1

(2 doses

per person)

13.5

billion doses

7.4

1.3

Dec

2020

Dec

2021

Dec

2022

Dec

2023

Protecting the herd

To make COVID-19 harder to spread,

experts believe as much as 70 percent of

the population may need to have reco-

vered from the disease or be protected

by vaccination; the remaining populace

would still be susceptible to the disease.

If an early vaccine is only 50 percent

effective—the FDA’s current minimum

threshold—a 100 percent vaccination

rate alone would not achieve herd

immunity but could offer protection

from more severe impacts of the virus.

DATA AS OF AUGUST 2020

SOURCES: PRASHANT YADAV, CENTER FOR GLOBAL

DEVELOPMENT AND INSEAD; MARGARET LIU,

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR VACCINES;

JOHN J. DONNELLY, VACCINOLOGY CONSULTING, LLC.;

UNICEF; WHO

How will we distribute a COVID-19 vaccine?

Here’s one potential path.

Experts suggest it may take the development of multiple vaccines

to begin the process of protecting the world’s population from

COVID-19. Most of the current vaccine front-runners require two

doses and could possibly be administered annually. No vaccine is

100 percent effective, and once a vaccine is approved there are still

many hurdles to overcome before a shot can be made widely

available. Governments and scientists have set different,

overlapping time lines in order to achieve a vaccine.

Here is one ambitious scenario.

BY DIANA MARQUES & ALEXANDER STEGMAIER

PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 29, 2020

Development

Previous research into other

coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS is

helping scientists in their race now.

Phase I trial

Phase II trial

Clinical trials

A multistep testing process must demonstrate

a vaccine is safe and effective before it can get

governmental and international approvals.

Large-scale production

Phase III trial

Vaccines can have complex biological and

engineered ingredients; mass production

could be the largest bottleneck in the process.

Potential emergency

authorization

Sep

WE ARE HERE

Emergency use

Limited quantities of a vaccine could become

available for priority or high-risk groups,

such as first responders and the elderly.

Shipping worldwide

An extensive network of refrigerated

systems will be required to deliver

vaccines from their manufacturing sites

to countries around the globe.

Potential approval

Distribution

Once the product is on the ground, local authorities will be responsible for storing it and shipping it to communities in need.

Vaccination campaign

A country’s size, resources, and people’s

willingness to vaccinate will drive strategy;

syringes, protective equipment, and health

workers will be in high demand.

Estimated global vaccine

annual supply and demand

15.8 billion doses needed

14.1

(2 doses

per person)

13.5

billion doses

7.4

1.3

Dec

2020

Dec

2021

Dec

2022

Dec

2023

Protecting the herd

To make COVID-19 harder to spread, experts believe as much as 70

percent of the population may need to have recovered from the dis-

ease or be protected by vaccination; the remaining populace would

still be susceptible to the disease. If an early vaccine is only 50 percent

effective—the FDA’s current minimum threshold—a 100 percent vacci-

nation rate alone would not achieve herd immunity but could offer

protection from more severe impacts of the virus.

DATA AS OF AUGUST 2020

SOURCES: PRASHANT YADAV, CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND INSEAD; MARGARET LIU,

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR VACCINES; JOHN J. DONNELLY, VACCINOLOGY CONSULTING, LLC.; UNICEF; WHO

How will we distribute a COVID-19 vaccine? Here’s one potential path.

Experts suggest it may take the development of multiple vaccines to begin

the process of protecting the world’s population from COVID-19. Most of the

current vaccine front-runners require two doses and could possibly be admin

istered annually. No vaccine is 100 percent effective, and once a vaccine is

approved there are still many hurdles to overcome before a shot can be made

widely available. Governments and scientists have set different, overlapping

time lines in order to achieve a vaccine. Here is one ambitious scenario.

BY DIANA MARQUES & ALEXANDER STEGMAIER

PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 29, 2020

Development

Previous research into other

coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS is

helping scientists in their race now.

Phase I trial

Phase II trial

Clinical trials

A multistep testing process must demonstrate

a vaccine is safe and effective before it can get

governmental and international approvals.

Large-scale production

Phase III trial

Vaccines can have complex biological and

engineered ingredients; mass production

could be the largest bottleneck in the process.

Potential emergency

authorization

Sep

WE ARE HERE

Emergency use

Limited quantities of a vaccine could become

available for priority or high-risk groups,

such as first responders and the elderly.

Shipping worldwide

An extensive network of refrigerated

systems will be required to deliver

vaccines from their manufacturing sites

to countries around the globe.

Potential approval

Distribution

Once the product is on the ground, local authorities will be responsible for storing it and shipping it to communities in need.

Vaccination campaign

A country’s size, resources, and people’s

willingness to vaccinate will drive strategy;

syringes, protective equipment, and health

workers will be in high demand.

Estimated global vaccine annual supply and demand

15.8 billion doses needed

14.1

(2 doses

per person)

13.5

billion doses

7.4

1.3

Dec

2020

Dec

2021

Dec

2022

Dec

2023

Protecting the herd

To make COVID-19 harder to spread, experts believe as much as 70 percent of

the population may need to have recovered from the disease or be protected by

vaccination; the remaining populace would still be susceptible to the disease. If

an early vaccine is only 50 percent effective—the FDA’s current minimum thresh-

old—a 100 percent vaccination rate alone would not achieve herd immunity but

could offer protection from more severe impacts of the virus.

DATA AS OF AUGUST 2020

SOURCES: PRASHANT YADAV, CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND INSEAD; MARGARET LIU,

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR VACCINES; JOHN J. DONNELLY, VACCINOLOGY CONSULTING, LLC.; UNICEF; WHO

How will we distribute a COVID-19 vaccine?

Here’s one potential path.

Experts suggest it may take the development of multiple vaccines to begin the process of

protecting the world’s population from COVID-19. Most of the current vaccine front-runners

require two doses and could possibly be administered annually. No vaccine is 100 percent

effective, and once a vaccine is approved there are still many hurdles to overcome before a

shot can be made widely available. Governments and scientists have set different,

overlapping time lines in order to achieve a vaccine. Here is one ambitious scenario.

BY DIANA MARQUES & ALEXANDER STEGMAIER

PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 29, 2020

Development

Previous research into other

coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS is

helping scientists in their race now.

Phase I trial

Phase II trial

Clinical trials

A multistep testing process must demonstrate

a vaccine is safe and effective before it can get

governmental and international approvals.

Large-scale production

Phase III trial

Vaccines can have complex biological and

engineered ingredients; mass production

could be the largest bottleneck in the process.

Potential emergency authorization

Sep

WE ARE HERE

Emergency use

Limited quantities of a vaccine could become

available for priority or high-risk groups,

such as first responders and the elderly.

Shipping worldwide

An extensive network of refrigerated

systems will be required to deliver

vaccines from their manufacturing sites

to countries around the globe.

Potential approval

Distribution

Once the product is on the ground, local authorities will be responsible for storing it and shipping it to communities in need.

Vaccination campaign

A country’s size, resources, and people’s

willingness to vaccinate will drive strategy;

syringes, protective equipment, and health

workers will be in high demand.

Estimated global vaccine annual supply and demand

15.8 billion doses needed

14.1

(2 doses

per person)

13.5

billion doses

7.4

1.3

Dec

2020

Dec

2021

Dec

2022

Dec

2023

Protecting the herd

To make COVID-19 harder to spread, experts believe as much as 70 percent of the

population may need to have recovered from the disease or be protected by vacci-

nation; the remaining populace would still be susceptible to the disease. If an early

vaccine is only 50 percent effective—the FDA’s current minimum threshold—a 100

percent vaccination rate alone would not achieve herd immunity but could offer

protection from more severe impacts of the virus.

DATA AS OF AUGUST 2020

SOURCES: PRASHANT YADAV, CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND INSEAD; MARGARET A. LIU,

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR VACCINES; JOHN J. DONNELLY, VACCINOLOGY CONSULTING, LLC.; UNICEF; WHO