Among the many reasons for concern about the near future of the global economy, markets are looking at food price inflation in China as a factor that might increase the likelihood of a world recession.

The world has actually been under a global food price inflation for a few years, mainly due to a sequence of extreme climate events affecting grain production almost everywhere: in China; in several Asian and African countries where the monsoon regime has been disruptive; in the U.S. and Canada; in Australia; in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Over the last three years, most of these countries have gone through severe droughts and floods, extreme winters and summers.

The chart shows a clear trend, with some oscillation, of rising