Recent news stories and press releases about U.S. natural gas supply, and the role of shale gas in improving U.S. energy supply security, have presented many conflicting estimates of America’s natural gas reserves. The accuracy of these estimates matter, because business investment and public policy decisions rely on such estimates of future energy availability and cost.

Financial markets also pay close attention to these figures for guidance on whether natural gas will be in undersupply or oversupply relative to market demand in coming years, a question that matters a great deal if you are betting on the future value of this energy commodity. Homeowners also care, because most of the cost of heating a home in northern climates is related to