But knowing how Earth's climate will react to natural and human-induced changes is important for governments and industry. (Related: "As Arctic Ice Melts, Rush Is on for Shipping Lanes, More.")

Perhaps nowhere are the stakes as high as in the Arctic. The mineral, gas, and biological bounties are powerful economic attractions, drawing countries into a modern-age gold rush fueled by disappearing sea ice. (Related: "Russia Plants Underwater Flag, Claims Arctic Seafloor.")

Predicting when the Arctic will be sea ice free in the summer months has occupied researchers for years. Estimates under high greenhouse gas emissions range from the year 2011 to 2098.

The complexity of Earth's atmosphere and oceans, and our