In recent years, a refugee crisis has gripped the European Union, as unrest in Syria and elsewhere has sent hundreds of thousands of migrants to Europe’s shores, seeking safe harbor.

Now, a new study says that if all else were to remain equal—a necessary but major if—the stresses of climate change could drive more migrants into the European Union in future years.

As warming worsens, these influxes would accelerate. Under one scenario where warming stabilizes by 2100, asylum applications could increase by some 28 percent. But in a scenario with “business-as-usual” warming, applications could nearly triple, to more than a million asylum seekers per year.