Can a bubbling pool of mud really predict a volcanic eruption?

That's the commonly held belief around the town of Paternò, Sicily, where residents think heightened activity at a gurgling pool of mud signals the next outburst from Mount Etna, which lies roughly 20 miles away.

Mount Etna is the most active lava-spewing volcano in Europe and one of the most active in the world. Recent video taken by amateur filmmaker Salvatore Allegra shows a small pool of mud as its grayish liquid gurgles and bubbles to the surface. He says the mud is almost always active and that it periodically erupts with in warm bursts, occasionally releasing enough mud to reach Paternò.

But when asked if the fresh roiling at